A couple of weeks ago we looked at the fact that about half the
pitchers who pitched in Major League Baseball throw over 90
miles per hour, but surprisingly, a low percentage of hard
throwers are left-handed. This week's question: Does it matter?
If you throw hard, does it mean you are better?
Let's look at the average fastball for each pitcher once
again. As the miles per hour of the average fastball goes up,
does ERA go up, down, or stay the same? Here's the data over the
last two years:
| Average Fastball (MPH)
|
Innings |
ERA |
| <90 |
32,998 |
4.58 |
| 90-91 |
19,200 |
4.47 |
| 92-93 |
18,795 |
4.08 |
| 94-95 |
4,933 |
3.92 |
| >95 |
1,226 |
3.55 |
It's a clear-cut pattern. We lumped all pitchers below 90
into one group because there wasn't a pattern in that group, but
beginning with pitchers with a 90 mile-per-hour fastball, there
is steady improvement in ERA as you go up in velocity.
One caller into my Stat of the Week radio segment in Chicago
suggested that relievers might be biasing the analysis. Most of
the hardest throwing pitchers are relievers, and it's easier for
a reliever to have a lower ERA because, quite often, they don't
have to pitch a full inning. That's a good point, but we took a
look and found the same pattern for starters and relievers:
decreasing ERA as velocity increases.
Who are the hardest throwers? They are all relievers except
Daniel Cabrera. Here's the top ten list over the last two years:
| Name |
Team |
Throws |
Avg
Fastball (MPH) |
| Joel Zumaya |
Tigers |
R |
98.56 |
| Billy Wagner |
Mets |
L |
96.47 |
| Bobby Jenks |
White Sox |
R |
96.29 |
| Kyle Farnsworth |
Yankees |
R |
96.20 |
| Ambiorix Burgos |
Royals |
R |
96.04 |
| Brad Lidge |
Astros |
R |
95.78 |
| Francisco Cordero |
Brewers |
R |
95.75 |
| Daniel Cabrera |
Orioles |
R |
95.74 |
| Derrick Turnbow |
Brewers |
R |
95.68 |
| Mark Lowe |
Mariners |
R |
95.61 |
Zumaya is incredible: over two miles per hour faster than the
next fastest pitcher.