Four teams played over .600
ball in one-run games in 2005. They were: the World
Champion Chicago White Sox (35-19, .648), the Boston Red Sox
(27-15, .643), the New York Yankees (27-16, .628) and the
oddball of the group, the Arizona Diamondbacks (28-18,
.609). The question is: can a team consistently play well in
one-run games?
This topic has been researched
in the past and it's been found that teams who do well one
year in one-run games return back to earth the next year.
Let's take another look at this, but also dig a little
deeper.
There were twelve teams who
played better than .600 ball in one-run games during a
season between 2002 and 2004. Collectively they had a
winning percentage of .644. What happened the next year?
They dropped to a .511 winning percentage. Yes, they came
back to earth, coming nearly all the way back to break-even
baseball.
But let's take a closer look.
Two things stand out.
1) Out of these twelve teams
who played great in one-run games, nine of them won 90 or
more games. The next year? Despite the drop in wininng
percentage in one-run games, eight of the teams won 90 or
more the next year as well. These teams are good overall,
not simply because they won the one-run games, by luck as
some would suggest.
2) Here's the other factor --
the Ozzie Guillen factor. Out of the twelve teams, only the
2004 White Sox improved their one-run game record in the
next year. The 2004 White Sox went 28-18 (.609) in one run
games and they are the only team to improve the next year as
they went 35-19 as World Champs in 2005.
Is it truly an Ozzie Guillen
factor? Can he get more out of his teams in these close
games than other managers? While it may simply be a
statistical variance, it does make you wonder.
Here's the complete list of the
twelve teams and their performance the following year:
Teams with
records better than .600 in one-run games -- 2002-2004
| |
|
One-Run Games |
Next Year |
|
Yr |
Tm |
W |
L |
Pct |
W |
L |
Pct |
|
2003 |
SF |
28 |
12 |
0.700 |
18 |
25 |
0.419 |
|
2002 |
Oakland |
32 |
14 |
0.696 |
25 |
20 |
0.556 |
|
2002 |
LAD |
33 |
15 |
0.688 |
16 |
20 |
0.444 |
|
2004 |
LAD |
32 |
16 |
0.667 |
33 |
26 |
0.559 |
|
2002 |
Minnesota |
29 |
16 |
0.644 |
22 |
20 |
0.524 |
|
2004 |
Oakland |
33 |
19 |
0.635 |
26 |
24 |
0.520 |
|
2004 |
SD |
25 |
15 |
0.625 |
29 |
20 |
0.592 |
|
2002 |
Atlanta |
28 |
17 |
0.622 |
17 |
25 |
0.405 |
|
2003 |
Boston |
26 |
16 |
0.619 |
16 |
18 |
0.471 |
|
2004 |
Atlanta |
27 |
17 |
0.614 |
23 |
20 |
0.535 |
|
2003 |
ChC |
27 |
17 |
0.614 |
19 |
30 |
0.388 |
|
2004 |
CWS |
28 |
18 |
0.609 |
35 |
19 |
0.648 |
