Spring Training doesn’t often predict
the regular season. For example, does anyone really believe the
White Sox are the worst team in baseball right now?
But there is one thing in Spring
Training that can tell us something about the season ahead. A hitter
that has a great Spring Training often goes on to have a better than
normal season. In precise statistical terms, a hitter with a
positive difference between their Spring Training slugging
percentage and their lifetime slugging percentage of .200 or more
alerts us to a step forward in the coming season.
We analyzed hitters with both a minimum
of 175 career regular season at-bats and with a minimum of 35 Spring
Training at-bats (through Spring Training games of Monday, March 27,
2006) and found 36 possible players for an above-average season.
The chart below shows the results.
Note we did not include statistics from the World Baseball Classic
which may leave some players short of the minimum 35 Spring Training
AB necessary for our analysis.
Slugging Percentage Compared
Spring Training 2006 vs. Previous Career
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Kevin
Mench |
Tex |
.558 |
1.042 |
.484 |
|
Edwin
Encarnacion |
Cin |
.478 |
.914 |
.436 |
|
Eric
Hinske |
Tor |
.435 |
.865 |
.430 |
|
Aramis Ramirez |
ChC |
.430 |
.911 |
.481 |
|
Casey
Kotchman |
LAA |
.372 |
.756 |
.384 |
|
Eric
Munson |
Hou |
.364 |
.773 |
.409 |
|
Brandon Inge |
Det |
.352 |
.731 |
.379 |
|
Richie Sexson |
Sea |
.327 |
.857 |
.530 |
|
Aaron
Boone |
Cle |
.326 |
.762 |
.436 |
|
Vance
Wilson |
Det |
.318 |
.683 |
.365 |
|
J.J.
Hardy |
Mil |
.316 |
.700 |
.384 |
|
Joe
McEwing |
KC |
.311 |
.667 |
.356 |
|
Curtis Granderson |
Det |
.308 |
.784 |
.476 |
|
Corey
Koskie |
Mil |
.295 |
.750 |
.455 |
|
Angel
Berroa |
KC |
.291 |
.690 |
.399 |
|
Jim
Thome |
CWS |
.280 |
.842 |
.562 |
|
Raul
Ibanez |
Sea |
.275 |
.735 |
.460 |
|
Doug
Mientkiewicz |
KC |
.269 |
.674 |
.405 |
|
Lance
Niekro |
SF |
.264 |
.723 |
.459 |
|
Jason
Ellison |
SF |
.264 |
.627 |
.363 |
|
Orlando Hudson |
Ari |
.256 |
.674 |
.418 |
|
Travis Hafner |
Cle |
.255 |
.811 |
.556 |
|
Ryan
Doumit |
Pit |
.252 |
.650 |
.398 |
|
Grady
Sizemore |
Cle |
.250 |
.720 |
.470 |
|
Jose
Castillo |
Pit |
.247 |
.639 |
.392 |
|
Steve
Finley |
SF |
.245 |
.692 |
.447 |
|
Jason
Dubois |
Cle |
.239 |
.682 |
.443 |
|
Ryan
Howard |
Phi |
.233 |
.800 |
.567 |
|
Dustan Mohr |
Bos |
.231 |
.657 |
.426 |
|
Reggie Taylor |
Det |
.230 |
.611 |
.381 |
|
Mark
Ellis |
Oak |
.228 |
.639 |
.411 |
|
David
Newhan |
Bal |
.227 |
.615 |
.388 |
|
Vladimir Guerrero |
LAA |
.224 |
.811 |
.587 |
|
Mike
Cameron |
SD |
.217 |
.659 |
.442 |
|
Jason
Tyner |
Min |
.209 |
.514 |
.305 |
|
Eric
Byrnes |
Ari |
.201 |
.638 |
.437 |
