More
pitches per plate appearance equals more runs -- true or false?
John Dewan's Stat of the WeekTM
Gotcha! Interestingly, it
turns out to be true and false.
Conventional wisdom for
hitters is to be patient at the plate, work the count, see a lot of
pitches and tire out the pitcher. Does this hold up when looking at
the stats? We looked at team data to research this one and figured
up team pitches seen per plate appearance. The team leaders last
year:
|
2005 Team |
Pitches Seen per Plate Appearance |
|
Boston |
3.86 |
|
Oakland |
3.86 |
|
Cincinnati |
3.85 |
|
Philadelphia |
3.84 |
|
LA
Dodgers |
3.84 |
|
|
|
|
The three lowest: |
|
|
Tampa Bay |
3.61 |
|
Chi Cubs |
3.61 |
|
San
Francisco |
3.56 |
Boston and Oakland at the
top. These are the two teams known to strongly believe in on-base
percentage. It's not a surprise to see them there.
In order to evaluate how
pitches per plate appearance match up with runs scored, we grouped
the teams into three groups of 10: The 10 teams with the most
pitches per plate appearance, the 10 teams with the least, and the
10 in between. How do the average runs scored for each group of 10
come out?
|
Pitches Seen Per Plate Appearance compared to Runs Scored -
2005 |
|
|
Team Grouping |
Average Runs Scored |
|
Top 10
teams - most pitches seen per plate appearance |
776 |
|
Middle 10
teams |
738 |
|
Bottom 10
teams |
719 |
The chart makes it clear: the
teams whose hitters see the most pitches score the most runs, on
average. Our headline question is true.
Now let's look at it from the
pitcher's perspective. Here's a listing of team pitches per plate
appearance based on pitches thrown:
|
2005 Team |
Pitches Thrown per Plate Appearance |
|
San
Francisco |
3.86 |
|
Chicago
Cubs |
3.83 |
|
Milwaukee |
3.82 |
|
Oakland |
3.79 |
|
Texas |
3.79 |
|
|
|
|
The bottom three: |
|
|
Detroit |
3.65 |
|
St. Louis |
3.64 |
|
Minnesota |
3.59 |
San Francisco and Chicago
hitters were at the bottom of the hitters chart. Now they're at the
top of the pitchers chart. Their hitters don't like to stay in to
see a lot of pitches, while their pitchers throw the most pitches
per plate appearance. At first glance you would think this would be
a terrible combination, and neither team wound up having a good
win-loss record last year. But let's do our 10-team groupings again
and see what we get.
|
Pitches Thrown Per Plate Appearance compared to Runs Scored
- 2005 |
|
|
Team Grouping |
Average Runs Scored |
|
Top 10
teams - most pitches thrown per plate appearance |
725 |
|
Middle 10
teams |
749 |
|
Bottom 10
teams |
759 |
Amazingly, this chart
comes out the opposite for pitchers. While seeing a lot of
pitches is a good thing for hitters, it's not necessarily a bad
thing for pitchers to throw a lot of pitches. It seems like a
conundrum, but here's one reason why this happens: strikeouts.
Strikeouts lead to high numbers of pitches per plate
appearance. Hitters who strikeout often are generally power
hitters. Power hitters generate more runs than other hitters.
Pitchers who strike out batters are power pitchers. Power
pitchers are generally more effective than other pitchers.
The answer to the headline
question is true and false. Did anyone get that? I
wouldn't have before I looked at this.
|
