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Can you
predict the Super Bowl winner?
John Dewan's Stat of the WeekTM
February 1, 2006
There's a system that I've been using
for the past 16 years that has correctly predicted the Super Bowl
winner 14 times. Let me share it with you here, then we'll see how
it does on Sunday.
The system has twelve statistics that
we use based on the regular season for the two Super Bowl
teams. Each statistic individually predicts the Super Bowl winner
roughly 55 to 70 percent of the time. But taken together, they
perform much better. We look at each stat and determine which team
is favored. Count up the number that favors each team and the team
with the most stats in its favor usually wins the Super Bowl. Last
year the Patriots were favored on nine stats, the Eagles on two and
there was one tie. That 9-2-1 "record" pointed to a Patriots
victory and they won 32-29 over the Eagles. The system is the most
fun when it predicts the underdog to win, as it did with Tampa Bay
over the Raiders two years ago. The system had the edge for the
Buccs 7-5 that year.
One of the statistical categories is
particularly interesting. It's Net Passing Yards by the offense
during the regular season. It turns out that the team with
fewer net passing yards generally wins the Super
Bowl. In essence, the team that relies less on the passing game for
its offense generally wins the Super Bowl. The team with the fewer
net passing yards during the regular season has won 23 out of 39
Super Bowls, or 59% of the time.
How about this Sunday, the Pittsburgh
Steelers and the Seattle Seahawks? Here are the statisitcal
categories:
| Category |
Team
with Advantage |
| Points Scored |
Seahawks |
| Points Allowed |
Steelers |
| Point Differential |
Seahawks |
| Fewer
Net Passing Yards |
Steelers |
| Rushing Yards |
Seahawks |
| Rushing Yards/Att |
Seahawks |
| Opponent Net Passing Yards |
Steelers |
| Opponent Rushing Yards |
Steelers |
| Opponent Yards/Att |
Steelers |
| Opponent Total Yards/Game |
Steelers |
| Turnover Differential |
Seahawks |
| Regular Season Record |
Seahawks |
Oh no! That's a 6-6 tie. That's the
first time since I've been doing this system that this has
happened. We have to go to overtime!
Fortunately, we have a tiebreaker which
works for this Super Bowl. In 16 previous Super Bowls one team had
previous Super Bowl experience as a franchise and the other didn't.
Twelve of those games were won by the team with experience. That
75% success rate is a good predictor as an individual statistic. We
use this for our tiebreaker, meaning:
The Pittsburgh Steelers are predicted
to win Super Bowl XL over the Seattle Seahawks. In overtime!
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