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How significant is the impact of
run support on win-loss records?
John Dewan's Stat of
the Week™
December
15, 2006
It’s
straight-forward that a pitcher’s win-loss record depends on his own
performance. How many hits and walks he allows, home runs allowed,
number of strikeouts, all come into play. However, while it’s also
fairly well known that the offense provided by his teammates matters as
well, the extent of it is not well known. Here are some interesting
examples of pitchers with similar ERAs but who have vastly different
win-loss records because of different levels of run support provided by
their teammates.
|
Pitchers |
ERA |
Run Support |
W-L Record |
|
Randy
Johnson, Yankees |
5.00
|
7.51 |
17-11
|
|
Mark
Buerhle, White Sox |
4.99
|
4.99 |
12-13
|
|
Roy
Halladay, Blue Jays |
3.19
|
6.01 |
16-5
|
|
C.C.
Sabathia, Indians |
3.22
|
4.53 |
12-11 |
|
Kelvim Escobar, Angels |
3.61
|
4.47 |
11-14
|
|
Justin Verlander, Tigers |
3.63
|
6.77 |
17-9
|
|
Felix
Hernandez, Mariners |
4.52
|
4.48 |
12-14
|
|
Freddy Garcia, White Sox |
4.53
|
6.16 |
17-9 |
Especially
interesting when they are on the same team:
|
Pitchers |
ERA |
Run Support |
W-L Record |
|
Kenny
Rogers, Tigers |
3.84
|
6.40 |
17-8 |
|
Nate
Robertson, Tigers |
3.84
|
3.84
|
13-13 |
Rogers had nearly two runs more
per game to work with than Robertson. Thus, despite their matching ERAs,
Rogers had a much better record than Robertson. Does the better record
make Rogers a better pitcher than Robertson? A lot of folks will say
yes, maybe even most folks. But the fact of the matter is that their
records could easily have been reversed if the run support were
reversed. It’s nothing more than pure luck that the Tigers scored more
runs for Rogers than Robertson.
Using these examples (and
others), for pitchers who have performed about the same, each run of
support means an extra couple of wins over the course of the season for
a starting pitcher. That’s significant. Especially when the Cy Young
voting occurs (and at salary negotiation time!).
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