Lineup
construction is one of the most scrutinized areas in baseball. Who
should bat leadoff? Who's in the cleanup spot? However, when it comes
down to it, several people (including me) have done studies that have
shown that lineup construction is, for the most part, immaterial. As
long as you generally have your best hitters near the top of the order,
the order doesn't matter.
Nevertheless, it's fun to
look at and, despite these studies, one can't help but feel it makes a
difference. Here's some fuel for the fire on the side of the notion that
the lineup matters.
Where should your best
hitters bat? One school of thought is to put your best hitter at the top
of the order because he'll get more at-bats that way over the course of
the season. Your second best hitter bats second. And so on down the
order. Here are the average plate appearances per lineup position based
on the 2006 MLB season:
|
Lineup Position |
Plate Appearances |
|
1 |
767 |
|
2 |
749 |
|
3 |
732 |
|
4 |
714 |
|
5 |
697 |
|
6 |
680 |
|
7 |
661 |
|
8 |
643 |
|
9 |
625 |
As you can see, each higher
spot in the order means 15 to 20 or more plate appearances over the
course of the season.
But let's look at another
element. How often does each lineup position come up with men on base?
|
Lineup Position |
Number of Times With Men on Base |
|
1 |
259 |
|
2 |
323 |
|
3 |
351 |
|
4 |
363 |
|
5 |
333 |
|
6 |
314 |
|
7 |
304 |
|
8 |
293 |
|
9 |
288 |
The number four position has the most over the course of a season. In
fact, it's 104 times more than the leadoff position, quite a significant
difference. The third spot in the order is not far behind.
What does this tell me? Your
best hitters should bat in the number three and number four spots in the
order. Put the speedier (and/or higher on-base) of the two in the number
three slot. Follow that up with your next best on-base guys in the
number one and two spots. Five through eight (or nine)? Go with the best
to worst with the remaining players.
It's the formula I've used
playing Strat-O-Matic baseball for the last 25 years. The studies say it
doesn't matter that much and maybe it doesn't. But it matters to
me, and to about 98% of all baseball fans.
