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Who else has a chance at 700 home runs?
John Dewan's Stat of
the WeekTM
October 20, 2006
Barry Bonds has passed the 700 home run mark, and with 734 dingers
he's moving up on Hank Aaron's all-time record of 755. And now, having
just ended the 2006 season, we have another player who has established
equal odds to reach the 700 milestone. They may boo him in New York, but
even after having "only" launched 35 long ones in 2006, Alex Rodriguez
has established himself as a 50-50 chance to become the fourth player to
hit 700 home runs.
Here is the list from the
Bill James Handbook 2007:
| 700 Home
Runs |
| (%
Chance to Reach Milestone) |
| Player
|
% Chance |
|
Barry Bonds, Giants |
Done
|
| Alex
Rodriguez, Yankees |
50% |
|
Albert Pujols, Cardinals |
31% |
|
Andruw Jones, Braves |
27% |
|
Manny Ramirez, Red Sox |
19% |
| Adam
Dunn, Reds |
15% |
|
David Ortiz, Red Sox |
13% |
| Ken
Griffey, Jr., Reds |
12% |
| Ryan
Howard, Phillies |
6% |
|
Vladimir Guerrero, Angels |
6% |
At the age of 30, A-Rod has 464 home runs. That's the highest age-30
total of any player in history. . .by a wide margin. The player in
second place at age 30 had 438--Ken Griffey Jr. Hank Aaron had 366.
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