The second-most important factor for a
starting pitcher's win-loss record is run support. His
own effectiveness is most important, of course, but how
many runs his teams scores for him is a close second.
Historically,
this has been an overlooked statistic. Win totals count
heavily in Cy Young Award voting, even though so much of
a pitcher's record is out of his control. Run support
varies widely, even with pitchers on the same team.
Here are the
run support leaders and trailers for pitchers with a
minimum of 20 games started (through the games of
Tuesday, August 21). Let's start with the luckiest
starting pitchers.
Most Run Support
|
Pitcher |
Run Support per 9 Innings
|
Record |
|
Tim Hudson, Atl |
7.10 |
15-5 |
|
Justin Verlander, Det |
7.02 |
13-4 |
|
Chien-Ming Wang, NYY |
6.96 |
14-6 |
|
Josh Beckett, Bos |
6.88 |
15-5 |
|
Andy Pettitte, NYY |
6.67 |
10-7 |
|
Roy Halladay, Tor |
6.39 |
14-5 |
|
Ted Lilly, ChC |
6.38 |
13-6 |
|
Dontrelle Willis, Fla
|
6.38 |
8-12 |
|
Jeremy Bonderman, Det
|
6.33 |
10-6 |
|
Felix Hernandez, Sea |
6.31 |
9-6 |
Not surprisingly, this list is dominated
by pitchers from the American League. The American
League outscores the National League, 4.9 runs per game
to 4.6.
The Yankees
even have two pitchers on the list.
Odd to see
Dontrelle Willis receiving this much support and still
below .500 in winning percentage. He does have the worst
ERA (4.91) of the top ten.
Now the flip
side of the picture, the unluckiest starting pitchers.
Notice the huge difference in run support between these
two lists.
Least Run Support
|
Pitcher |
Run Support per 9 Innings
|
Record |
|
Rich Hill, ChC |
3.24 |
7-7 |
|
Doug Davis, Ari |
3.63 |
10-11 |
|
Matt Cain, SF |
3.66 |
5-13 |
|
David Wells, SD |
3.87 |
5-8 |
|
Matthew Chico, Was |
3.94 |
5-7 |
|
Kip Wells, StL |
3.94 |
6-13 |
|
Gil Meche, KC |
3.99 |
7-11 |
|
Carlos Silva, Min |
4.00 |
9-12 |
|
Kyle Lohse, Cin/Phi |
4.02 |
7-12 |
|
Chris Capuano, Mil |
4.03 |
5-10 |
On the other hand, this list is
dominated by National League pitchers.
David Wells
was recently released by the Padres, though he
contributed to his own difficulties by having the worst
earned run average (5.54) of this group and he was
pitching his home games in an extreme pitcher's park.
Notice the
Cubs are the only team with a pitcher on both lists.
Rich Hill and Ted Lilly have very similar earned run
averages (3.73 vs. 3.88, respectively), but Lilly is
receiving nearly twice as much run support as Hill.
Their win-loss records could easily be reversed if their
run support was reversed. The three other Cubs starters
are all receiving at least five runs per game of
support, making Hill's 3.2 runs per game all the more
amazing.
