A couple of weeks ago we looked at how
often hitters protect the plate with two strikes, but we
only touched on how effective they are. With Miguel
Cabrera on the list of players who don't try to protect,
it raised the question that maybe protecting the plate
wasn't all that big a deal.
To figure
this one out we started by breaking all 2007 regulars
into three groups: Top Protectors (players who protect
the plate with two strikes), Average Protectors (the
middle group), and No Protectors (players who protected
the plate with two strikes least often). We then looked
at player performance utilizing batting average and OPS
(on-base plus slugging percentage) with two strikes and
compared that to performance with less than two strikes.
Let's first look at batting average. The batting
averages of our three groups with less than two strikes
are:
|
Top Protectors |
.271 |
|
Average Protectors |
.272 |
|
No Protectors |
.257 |
The batting
averages of our three groups with two strikes are:
|
Top Protectors |
.218 |
|
Average Protectors |
.214 |
|
No Protectors |
.182 |
The
differences:
|
Top Protectors |
.053 |
|
Average Protectors |
.058 |
|
No Protectors |
.076 |
When we use
batting average as a measure, players who protect the
plate perform better than those who don't. The batting
average of the Top Protectors drops off the least, by 53
points, while the No Protectors drop off 76 points.
* * *
Now let's
look at OPS.
The on-base
plus slugging percentages of our three groups with less
than two strikes are:
|
Top Protectors |
.804 |
|
Average Protectors |
.823 |
|
No Protectors |
.837 |
The on-base
plus slugging percentages of our three groups with two
strikes are:
|
Top Protectors |
.633 |
|
Average Protectors |
.639 |
|
No Protectors |
.588 |
The
differences:
|
Top Protectors |
.171 |
|
Average Protectors |
.184 |
|
No Protectors |
.248 |
OPS shows an
even more significant drop in performance. Top
Protectors only drop 171 points compared to 248 points
for the No Protectors. Bottom line: It appears that
major league players, taken as a group, can improve
their performance by protecting the plate with two
strikes.
Here are the
top and bottom performers with two strikes (relative to
their performance with less than two strikes):
These guys
actually hit better with two strikes than less than two
strikes!
|
Hitter |
Team |
OPS Difference |
|
Adam Everett |
Astros |
-.215 |
|
Aramis Ramirez |
Cubs |
-.085 |
|
Mike Sweeney |
Royals |
-.056 |
|
Jimmy Rollins |
Phillies |
-.050 |
|
Placido Polanco |
Tigers |
-.048 |
|
Chris Duffy |
Pirates |
-.040 |
|
Brian Schneider |
Nationals |
-.029 |
|
Luis Castillo |
Twins |
-.016 |
|
Brian McCann |
Braves |
-.007 |
|
David DeJesus |
Royals |
-.006 |
The
performance for these guys drops off considerably when
hitting with two strikes:
|
Hitter |
Team |
OPS Difference |
|
Vladimir Guerrero |
Angels |
.538 |
|
Hunter Pence |
Astros |
.491 |
|
Justin Morneau |
Twins |
.472 |
|
Garrett Atkins |
Rockies |
.464 |
|
Kevin Kouzmanoff |
Padres |
.453 |
|
Matt Stairs |
Blue Jays |
.449 |
|
Jim Thome |
White Sox |
.445 |
|
Adam Dunn |
Reds |
.433 |
|
A.J. Pierzynski |
White Sox |
.411 |
|
Elijah Dukes |
Devil Rays |
.405 |
Note: All
statistics from 2007 regular season through the games of
Thursday, July 5, with a minimum 200 plate appearances.
