In
last night’s game between the White Sox and Royals, Jim
Thome came to the plate for the Sox with men on first
and second in the ninth inning of a one-run game. As is
usual with a handful of sluggers like Thome (e.g.,
Bonds, Ortiz, Howard), the shift was on. Three
infielders were to the right of second base expecting
the lefty to pull the ball. Because of the runner on
second, the third baseman wasn’t swung over towards
second base as is customary with Thome batting. Sure
enough, Thome grounded the ball directly through the
normal shortstop position scoring that all-important
insurance run putting the White Sox up 6-4.Were the
Kansas City Royals playing the right defense, in essence
having 75% of their infielders to the right of second
base?
Actually, yes. In 2006, Jim Thome pulled 81% of all
grounders he hit to the right side of second base.
Interestingly, when he does hit the ball on the ground
to the left of second, it usually does go to the normal
shortstop position. However, the man on second prevented
the third baseman from playing there.
Taking all major league hitters together, they pull
grounders a surprisingly high 72% of the time. Shifting
your infielders to have three players on the same side
of second is a strategy that makes sense, and I believe
we’ll see more and more of it as time goes on. There are
even a few right-handed hitters for whom a shift makes
sense. Placing three players to the left of second is
more difficult because the first baseman, like the third
baseman with a runner at second, can’t move far from the
bag. However, when you have some right-handed hitters
who pull more than 85% of their grounders, it makes
sense to shift for them as well.
Here are the leading shift candidates in baseball:
|
Groundball Pull Percentage --
2006 |
| Batting Right-handed
|
|
Batting Left-handed |
|
| Moises Alou
|
93% |
Ryan Howard
|
88% |
| Jason Bay |
92% |
Curtis Granderson
|
87% |
| Andruw Jones |
90% |
Jimmy Rollins
|
85% |
| Mike Lowell
|
87% |
Carlos Beltran
|
83% |
| Pedro Feliz
|
87% |
Adam LaRoche
|
83% |
Note: includes hitters with 100 or more groundballs
in 2006
It’s surprising to find a player like Jimmy Rollins
on this list. He’s a switch-hitter, but when he bats
lefty he pulls grounders 85% of the time. With his
excellent speed, you may think you need to keep him
honest on the bunt and position your third baseman
accordingly, but the fact of the matter is that he
hasn’t put a bunt into play in his last 937 plate
appearances. If I were a major league manager, I’d make
him prove he can bunt and play my third baseman at
shortstop when Rollins is at the plate swinging lefty.
Then if he shows me he can, I still play a shift but
with my third baseman ready for the bunt (and move him
back to the shortstop position with two strikes).
We’ll take a look at how often hitters pull flyballs
next week.
