The approach
we are taking to look at this question is straightforward. The starting
pitcher leaves the game with the lead (after pitching at least five
innings). If the bullpen loses the lead resulting in either a loss or a
no-decision for the starting pitcher, he is considered to have been let
down.
First, let's look at the
major leagues as a whole. When a pitcher leaves the game after five or
more innings with a lead, he can expect to get a win 80% of the time. In
2006 the starter left the game in this situation 1,982 times and
recorded 1,583 wins. That's 80%.
Here are the pitchers with
the most "blown wins" by his bullpen in 2006. Each of them could easily
have had 3 or 4 more wins with normal bullpen support:
|
Name |
Record |
Blown Wins |
|
Derek
Lowe, Dodgers |
16-8 |
6
|
|
Jeff
Francis, Rockies |
13-11 |
6
|
|
Casey
Fossum, Devil Rays |
6-6 |
6 |
|
Luke
Hudson, Royals |
7-6 |
6
|
With normal bullpen support
Lowe wins 19, Francis wins 15+ while Fossum and Hudson both get into
double digits.
Five pitchers had 10 or more
leads passed to their bullpens and received flawless support. They are:
|
Name |
Record |
Wins Preserved |
|
Brad
Penny, Dodgers |
16-9 |
15
for 15 |
|
Brandon Webb, Diamondbacks |
16-8 |
15
for 15 |
|
Mike
Mussina, Yankees |
15-7 |
14
for 14 |
|
Joe
Blanton, A's |
16-12 |
14
for 14 |
|
Ramon
Ortiz, Nationals |
11-16 |
10
for 10 |
|
Francisco Liriano, Twins |
12-3 |
10
for 10 |
Penny, Webb and Lowe tied
with three other pitchers for the National League lead in wins in 2006.
Clearly it was Lowe who should have won this. With average bullpen
support (from the same bullpen, no less) Lowe would have had six more
wins than Penny (Lowe with 19 and Penny with 13).
