OK -- I have no excuses. My prediction system didn't
work in the game that I, as a Bears fan, wanted most. I'd happily trade
in my 14 correct predictions in the last (now) 17 years for one this
past Sunday.
However, I will say that if any other team was in the Super Bowl
other than the Bears I wouldn't be fretting over it. I would be chalking
it up to the laws of probability. I call it a prediction system, but
what I should really be saying is the system shows which team has the
greatest chance of winning. Instead, I called it a prediction so I stand
by it. The Bears lost. And so did I.
I did warn of possible problems before the Bears' first playoff game
in my Stat of the Week,
“What two words are ominous for the Chicago Bears in the postseason?”
In my Bears fever, I chose to overlook that point and rarely mentioned
it when I talked about the prediction system.
Now I will give you something new to consider. And something I will
consider for the future. How important is quarterback experience in the
Super Bowl? Rex Grossman came into the game with only 24 games of
regular season football under his belt. It turns out that this is a rare
situation. Here are some numbers for you:
Number of QBs that have led their team to the Super Bowl with less
than 25 games of experience: four.
Number of Super Bowl wins by QBs with less than 25 games of
experience: two.
That’s right, there have only been four quarterbacks in the history
of the Super Bowl (out of 1,162 teams) that have led their team to the
Super Bowl. Two of them did manage to win -- Kurt Warner and Tom Brady.
The other two were Vince Ferragamo and, now, Rex Grossman.
It's well known in the NFL that quarterbacks take a while to adjust
to the pro game. Even John Elway, who played in five Super Bowls,
couldn't win one until his final two seasons as a pro (his 15th and 16th
years in the league). In his third Super Bowl -- his third Super Bowl
loss -- Elway's stats were anemic (10-26, 108 yards, 0 TDs and 2 Ints).
Grossman's stats looked great compared to that (20-28, 165 yards, 1 TD
and 2 Ints). Obviously, Grossman's two fumbles hurt as well.
Grossman's inexperience showed in the Super Bowl -- he's only played
in those 24 regular season games. The average winning Super Bowl
quarterback has 95 games under his belt. Most of Chicago has written him
off. I haven't.
