As I discussed last week, there's a system that I've
been using for the past 16 years that has correctly predicted the Super
Bowl winner 14 times. It involves 12 predictors that each successfully
predict the Super Bowl winner roughly 55 to 70 percent of the time, but
taken together they work even better. Last year, for the first time in
those 16 years, we had to go to the tie-breaker when the categories were
tied 6-6 between the Steelers and Seahawks (
Can you predict the Super
Bowl winner?).
The twelve categories are broken into five defensive statistics, four
offensive and three overall. The winning percentage for each of the
categories is based on how often that category favored the eventual
Super Bowl winner. The chart below shows all of the percentages.
Now let's look at Super Bowl XLI:
| Category |
Winning
Percentage |
Team with
Advantage |
| Rushing Yards / Attempt |
.550 |
Colts
|
| Rushing Yards |
.550 |
Bears
|
| Opponent Net Passing Yards |
.550 |
Colts
|
| Points Scored |
.588 |
Tie |
| Opponent Rushing Yards / Attempt |
.600 |
Bears
|
| Fewer Net Passing
Yards |
.600 |
Bears
|
| Turnover Differential |
.625 |
Bears
|
| Opponent Rushing Yards |
.625 |
Bears
|
| Point Differential |
.663 |
Bears
|
| Regular Season Record |
.688 |
Bears
|
| Opponent Total Yards / Game |
.700 |
Bears |
| Points Allowed |
.713 |
Bears
|
The Bears take the last eight categories, which are the best
predictors, all at 60% or better. Of those eight, five are defensive,
which confirms the adage: Defense wins championships. Overall, the Bears
take nine categories and the Colts only two, with one tie. There have
been 18 occasions where the system favored one of the teams with nine or
more categories. That team has won 15 times.
The system leans significantly towards the Bears winning their first
Super Bowl in 21 years.
I want to give credit to Jim Henzler from my days over at STATS, Inc
for helping me develop the system. Jim, who also collaborated with Bill
James on his book Win Shares, came up with the main elements of
this system back in the early 90's.
