There's a system that I've been using for the past 16
years that has correctly predicted the Super Bowl winner 14 times. It
involves 12 predictors that each succesfully predict the Super Bowl
winner roughly 55 to 70 percent of the time, but taken together they
work even better. I explained the system last year when, for the first
time in those 16 years, we had to go to the tie-breaker when the
categories were tied 6-6 between the Steelers and Seahawks. If you want
to learn more about the system, read last year's Super Bowl Stat of the
Week, Can you predict the
Super Bowl winner?
This system has only been used for the Super Bowl, but Mike Murphy at
WSCR (sports talk radio in Chicago) asked me to try it out for the
Conference Championships. Just the for the fun of it, I did. Here are
the results for each game.
For the AFC Championship:
| Category |
Team with
Advantage |
| Points Scored |
Colts
|
| Points Allowed |
Patriots
|
| Point Differential |
Patriots
|
| Fewer Net Passing
Yards |
Patriots
|
| Rushing Yards |
Patriots
|
| Rushing Yards / Attempt |
Colts
|
| Opponent Net Passing Yards |
Colts
|
| Opponent Rushing Yards |
Patriots
|
| Opponent Rushing Yards / Attempt |
Patriots
|
| Opponent Total Yards / Game |
Patriots
|
| Turnover Differential |
Patriots
|
| Regular Season Record |
Tie |
Patriots take eight categories and the Colts only three. The AFC #4
seeded Patriots look to be in the Super Bowl yet again (third time in
four years!) with a road win against the #3 seeded Colts.
For the NFC Championship:
| Category |
Team with
Advantage |
| Points Scored |
Bears
|
| Points Allowed |
Bears
|
| Point Differential |
Bears
|
| Fewer Net Passing
Yards |
Bears |
| Rushing Yards |
Bears
|
| Rushing Yards / Attempt |
Bears
|
| Opponent Net Passing Yards |
Saints
|
| Opponent Rushing Yards |
Bears
|
| Opponent Rushing Yards / Attempt |
Bears
|
| Opponent Total Yards / Game |
Bears
|
| Turnover Differential |
Bears
|
| Regular Season Record |
Bears
|
Wow, that is a huge advantage for the Bears, eleven categories to
one. Looking at all 40 Super Bowls, the only perfect season in NFL
history. the 1972 Miami Dolphins, had the only perfect 12-0 tally on the
predictor system. The other four teams winning 11 categories on the
predictor system (including the 1985 Bears) also all won the Super Bowl.
As a huge Bears fan I sure hope this Super Bowl predictor system works
for the NFC Championship this year!
