Top 20 Right-handed Pitcher Prospects

by Chuck Dieringer

1. Daisuke Matsuzaka -- Boston Red Sox

Dice-K mania has been all the rage this spring. Matsuzaka reportedly throws about 6 pitches including the mysterious "gyroball", which some have simply described as a changeup that acts like screwball. He has the stuff to be an ace worthy of the $100 million investment. It's now about the anticipation of seeing if he can fulfill all the hype. Most think he'll have little problem doing so.

2. Philip Hughes -- New York Yankees

Age	2006 level	ERA	IP	H	BB	SO	WHIP	HR
21	High-A	1.80	30	19	2	30	0.70	0
	Double-A	2.25	116	73	32	138	0.91	5

Not a single thing about those number to complain about. Hughes has a great fastball-curveball combination and tremendous command to go with it. The biggest questions concerning Hughes' likelihood to reach his potential have more to do with issues like handling pitching in Yankee Stadium, wearing pinstripes, dealing with the Boss and the New York media, and having to go up against Matsuzaka in Game 1 of an ALCS sometime in the near future. Otherwise, no pressure.

3. Homer Bailey -- Cincinnati Reds

Age	2006 level	ERA	IP	H	BB	SO	WHIP	HR
21	High-A	3.31	71	49	22	79	1.00	6
	Double-A	1.59	68	50	28	77	1.15	1

Bailey has an even better fastball-curveball combination than Hughes. But his command is not quite as top-notch as Hughes and Bailey also may lack the intensity and determination to work hard to improve, the quality of a bulldog mentality that is expected from an ace. If he's rushed to the Majors before he's ready, Great American Ballpark may damage him forever. But I still really like him and there's a strong part of me that still wants to rank him ahead of Hughes.

4. Yovani Gallardo -- Milwaukee Brewers

Age	2006 level	ERA	IP	H	BB	SO	WHIP	HR
21	High-A	2.09	78	54	23	103	0.99	4
	Double-A	1.63	77	50	28	85	1.01	2

Gallardo had a strong 2005 in his first full season. But he really exploded on the scene with a dynamite 2006. His numbers rival Homer Bailey's, both being the same age and pitching at the same levels. He should be ready for a mid-to-late season callup, but it will be curious to see how the Brewers handle wanting to acclimate the rookie in their rotation if they also happen to be in a pennant race in August.

5. Tim Lincecum -- San Francisco Giants

Age	2006 level	ERA	IP	H	BB	SO	WHIP	HR
23	SS-A	0.00	4	1	0	10	0.25	0
	High-A	1.95	28	13	12	48	0.89	3

The Giants 2006 first-round pick, Lincecum began his professional career like lightning, allowing opponents to hit .127 while striking out 58 in 32 innings. Though he continues to start, he could be the Giants' future closer. He's been criticized because of his somewhat smallish frame for a righthanded power pitcher (6'0", 170). But that same frame has worked well for Roy Oswalt. Plus, nobody's been questioning Dice-K for being 6'0".

6. Matt Garza -- Minnesota Twins

Age	2006 level	ERA	IP	H	BB	SO	WHIP	HR
23	High-A	1.42	44	27	11	53	0.86	3
	Double-A	2.51	57	40	14	68	0.95	2
	Triple-A	1.85	34	20	7	33	0.79	1
	Majors	5.76	50	62	23	38	1.70	6

Making the most meteoric rise in the minor leagues last year, Garza started the year in A-ball and rapidly sped up his timetable by dominating each level he faced until finally being brought back down to reality in the Majors. But it took the Majors to finally humble him. It should not be long at all until Garza is in the Twins' rotation for good.

7. Mike Pelfrey -- New York Mets

Age	2006 level	ERA	IP	H	BB	SO	WHIP	HR
23	High-A	1.64	22	17	2	26	0.86	1
	Double-A	2.71	66	60	26	77	1.30	2
	Triple-A	2.25	8	4	5	6	1.13	1
	Majors	5.48	21	25	12	13	1.76	1

Pelfrey rose through the Mets system in a way that mirrors Garza, except he wasn't able to throw 100 innings and after a brief appearance with the Mets he returned to Triple-A. At 6'7" Pelfrey has the power frame scouts love and the movement on his fastball to go with it. Unlike most other prospects, his changeup is ahead of his breaking stuff. He'll begin 2007 in the Mets rotation but the development of a curve or slider is necessary for him to have success as a starter.

8. Adam Miller -- Cleveland Indians

Age	2006 level	ERA	IP	H	BB	SO	WHIP	HR
22	Double-A	2.75	154	129	43	157	1.12	9
	Triple-A	5.79	5	4	3	4	1.40	0

Miller bounced back from an injury-plagued 2005 with a strong 2006 putting him back into the "future ace" category. He'll start 2007 in Triple-A but he should be ready for a midseason promotion when the Indians need him.

9. Luke Hochevar -- Kansas City Royals

Age	2006 level	ERA	IP	H	BB	SO	WHIP	HR
23	Low-A	1.17	15	8	2	16	0.67	2

The #1 overall selection of the 2006 Draft, Hochevar signed with barely enough time to get his professional career underway. He is well polished and won't have to spend much time in the minors until the Royals want to see what he can do against Major League hitters.

10. Jeff Niemann -- Tampa Bay Devil Rays

Age	2006 level	ERA	IP	H	BB	SO	WHIP	HR
24	Double-A	2.68	77	56	29	84	1.10	6

At 6'9", Niemann poses a threatening presence on the mound. However, he has been hampered by separate injuries in each of the past 3 years. The half-season he was able to pitch last year, he dominated Double-A and showed that his stuff is not too far from reaching the Big Leagues. But he needs to be healthy to continue those aspirations.

11. Nick Adenhart -- Los Angeles Angels

Age	2006 level	ERA	IP	H	BB	SO	WHIP	HR
20	Low-A	1.95	106	84	26	99	1.04	2
	High-A	3.78	52	51	16	46	1.29	1

Adenhart could have been the first high school pitcher taken in the 2004 Draft, but he needed Tommy John Surgery the month before the draft. The Angels took a chance on him in the 14th round and gave him 2nd round money to sign. He's again looking like the first round prospect he once was but the Angels will be patient with him. He may make his Major League debut in late 2008 and could break camp with the Angels following Spring Training in 2009.

12. Eric Hurley -- Texas Rangers

Age	2006 level	ERA	IP	H	BB	SO	WHIP	HR
21	High-A	4.11	101	92	32	106	1.23	12
	Double-A	1.95	37	21	11	31	0.86	4

Last year, all the talk about the Rangers system was the their DVD pitching trio (John Danks, Edinson Volquez & Thomas Diamond). Hurley pitched his way into the mix despite being stuck in the hitter-friendly California League. A year later, one D is gone (Danks to the White Sox), the other D is out for the year (Diamond) and the V stands for Velocity-with-no-command leaving Hurley as the best pitching prospect in the system. Hurley seemed to thrive on his promotion and he should start 2007 back in Double-A, perhaps with a September callup yet this year.

13. Philip Humber -- New York Mets

Age	2006 level	ERA	IP	H	BB	SO	WHIP	HR
24	Rookie	6.75	4	7	1	7	2.00	0
	High-A	2.37	38	24	9	36	0.87	4
	Double-A	2.88	34	25	10	36	1.03	4
	Majors	0.00	2	0	1	2	0.50	0

Like his Rice teammate Niemann, Humber has been battling injuries. Once he proved himself healthy in High-A ball, he got put back on the fast track and made his Big League debut last year. He'll start 2007 in the minors, but the Mets will keep a close eye on him in case their starting pitching situation gets any worse.

14. Clay Buchholz -- Boston Red Sox

Age	2006 level	ERA	IP	H	BB	SO	WHIP	HR
22	Low-A	2.62	103	78	29	117	1.04	10
	High-A	1.13	16	10	4	23	0.88	0

In his first full professional season he dominated A-ball. He has a full repertoire of above-average pitches (fastball, curveball & changeup). He should taste some action in Double-A before the season ends.

15. Chris Volstad -- Florida Marlins

Age	2006 level	ERA	IP	H	BB	SO	WHIP	HR
20	Low-A	3.08	152	161	36	99	1.30	12

Volstad has great control and consistently throws strikes, which also allows him to be hittable. To succeed in the upper levels, he may have to accumulate a few more strikeouts. If not, he will be much too hittable for Major League hitters.

16. Brandon Erbe -- Baltimore Orioles

Age	2006 level	ERA	IP	H	BB	SO	WHIP	HR
19	Low-A	3.22	115	88	47	133	1.17	2

Drafted in the 3rd round of the 2005 Draft at only age 17, Erbe is exceeding expectations. The first official pitch he throws beyond his 20s will be his first start of 2008, at which time he should already be in Double-A. With his youth, there's no reason to rush him so a level a season could be in order for now.

17. Jason Hirsh -- Colorado Rockies

Age	2006 level	ERA	IP	H	BB	SO	WHIP	HR
25	Triple-A	2.10	137	94	51	118	1.06	5
	Majors	6.04	45	48	22	29	1.56	11

At 6'8", Hirsh is another of the tall starters on this list joining Volstad, Pelfrey and Neimann as the 6'7" or more group. Hirsh was roughed up last year in his initial Major League stint. But he's close to being ready and should provide the Rockies another option in their rotation as the season progresses.

18. Humberto Sanchez -- New York Yankees

Age	2006 level	ERA	IP	H	BB	SO	WHIP	HR
24	Double-A	1.76	72	47	27	86	1.03	2
	Triple-A	3.86	51	50	20	43	1.37	2

Humberto was the headliner prospect in the Gary Sheffield trade to the Tigers. Sanchez has a lively arm but has questions to answer: at 6'6", 230 lbs., he has had trouble with his weight and needs to constantly watch his figure; and he's had injury issues such that in 4 full seasons he averages 105.5 IP per season and no more than 123. His Double-A stint in 2006 was the best of his career, but it appears to be the aberration (2003 WHIP in Low-A = 1.60, 2004 WHIP in High-A = 1.47, 2005 WHIP in Double-A = 1.52) and he reverted back to previous performance following his promotion to Tr