Evaluating the National League Playoff Contenders

 As we head into the playoffs, let’s take a quick look at the contenders to represent the National League in the World Series. We’ll start with each team’s 2004 regular season offensive statistics. (In parentheses is the team’s ranking for the applicable category among the 16 NL teams.)

Observation #1:  The Cardinals are an offensive machine! But how in the world do they have such a powerful lineup yet still have so many stolen bases? They do everything possible to score runs.

Observation #2:  The Dodgers’ offense ranks last in several categories. Quite a contrast from the Cardinals, their first-round opponent. Their mediocre percentages can be partly explained by their ballpark. But how does that explain observation #3?

Observation #3:  The Dodgers, lowest among the playoff teams in average, on-base, slug, and the most important of all, runs scored, still hit over 200 homeruns! That surely isn’t apparent in their slugging percentage. In comparison to the rest of the categories, that seems to be a very odd stat.

Observation #4:  It’s a bit difficult to distinguish Houston from Atlanta, first-round opponents. Though slightly behind the Braves in hitting and on-base, Houston’s leap over Atlanta in slugging percentage could likely be due to their ballpark.

The only interesting aspect of the sacrifice bunt statistic is the great disparity between the Astros and the rest:

Watch the Astros to see if this becomes a factor in their series.

Let’s turn our focus to pitching.

Observation #1:  It takes a good pitching staff to make it through 162 games. Of the 12 non-playoff teams in the NL, only two had an ERA comparable with the playoff teams.

Observation #2: Slugging percentage must play a significant role in scoring runs. Otherwise, how else would Atlanta’s ERA hold up as best in the league when they allow baserunners at an ordinary rate?

Observation #3:  St. Louis is not just a good offensive ballclub. The lineup gets all the pub, but the ptiching staff is for real.

Observation #4: Explaining away the Dodgers’ hitting vulnerabilities because of their ballpark does not do their pitching staff any favors. There has to be more to the Dodgers’ hitting woes than simply the ballpark.

Observation #5:  According to these numbers, Houston’s pitching staff appears to be the most consistently mediocre.

Let’s break it down between starting pitchers and relievers.

Observation #1: The Cardinals bullpen is top notch! If their starters are steady enough, they may not blow any late leads.

Observation #2: Houston’s starters compare more favorably to the others than their bullpen does. The Astros’ bullpen numbers fail to show how dominate Brad Lidge has been in the closer role. The other three bullpens have the top three bullpen ERAs in the NL.

Observation #3: The Braves consistently allow a high batting average though, as shown by the overall pitching numbers, they shine most by not allowing many extra-base hits.

Observation #4: The Dodgers’ numbers remain difficult to forecast. The starters’ numbers are tainted by Hideo Nomo who had a horrible season and most surely will not be on the playoff roster. The bullpen looks to be a strength, second only St. Louis, but do these numbers reflect the loss of Guillermo Mota?

So who makes all the plays in the field?

Observation #1: The Houston-Atlanta series might be a bit more sloppy than the St. Louis-Los Angeles series.

Observation #2: The Dodgers stand tall above the rest in defensive performance.

CONCLUSION: Putting it all together, St. Louis certainly appears to be the most complete of the teams. The Cardinals’ weakest area is in the starting pitching, which has been solid all year yet without an ace. With a high-powered offense and a lights-out bullpen, all the starters should have to do is be adequate for six innings.