Evaluating the American League Playoff Contenders 

As we head into the playoffs, let’s take a quick look at the contenders to represent the American League in the World Series. We’ll start with each team’s 2004 regular season offensive statistics. (In parentheses is the team’s ranking for the applicable category among the 14 AL teams.)

So what do these numbers tell us?

Observation #1: The Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees are clearly the most threatening offensively. Obviously, the whole point of offense is to score runs, where they rank first and second in the American League. They both do it with heavy bashers and big innings as evidenced by also ranking first and second in both on-base and slugging percentage. Also worthy of observation is that the Red Sox narrowly edge the Yankees in all three categories discussed.

Observation #2: The team most likely to play small ball? The Anaheim Angels. Though ranking first in the league in batting average, when taking into account on-base and slug they fall off into offensive mediocrity. Their isolated power (slug minus average) is only .147 which means lots of singles. Compare that to the isolated powers of Boston and New York which are each .190 due to plenty of extra-base hits. Though fewer extra-base hits, they will steal more than the power-laden teams.

Observation #3: The second most-likely team to play small ball is the Minnesota Twins. Their offense is mediocre across the board with above average success only in the stolen base department. Don’t expect their offense to carry them.

If it’s not to late to add another team statistic, while we’re on the topic of “small ball” let’s take a quick look at sacrifice bunts. We’ll find that they rank consistently with our prediction of which teams are likely to play small ball more often:  

In reverse order, from Boston to Anaheim, we know which teams will more heavily rely on moving station-to-station waiting for the three-run blast.

Now what about pitching?  

Observation #1: None of the teams got here with slouches on the mound. Only two non-playoff teams were in the mix in team ERA and slugging percentage allowed. When it comes to keeping runners off base, these four teams were the best in the league. Should be plenty of good pitching in these series’.

Observation #2: The Yankees rank dead last in each category. Granted, they were respectable numbers so it’s not like they were lapped by the competition. But they were clearly the least effective of the four pitching staffs.

Let’s take a closer look at the breakdown between starters and relievers:

Observation #1: Though the Twins’ starters have a lower ERA than Boston’s, the Red Sox starters ranked best in the AL in each of the percentage categories. The difference between the starters’ ERA of Boston and Minnesota and those of Anaheim and New York is quite substantial.

Observation #2: The Angels bullpen took a clean sweep over each of the categories. While the Red Sox and Twins bullpens are nearly identical, until getting to slugging percentage allowed, Anaheim’s bullpen ERA is head and shoulders above the rest.

Observation #3: Can the Yankees bullpen actually be that vulnerable? They consistently rank in the third quadrant of the American League. It’s been a long time since anything like this could be said about New York’s bullpen. Expect manager Joe Torre to try to get his starter to go as close to eight innings as possible and go straight to Mariano Rivera, perhaps even making the call to Rivera in the 8^th as he has done so often in the past.

Let’s throw defense into the mix also:

Observation #1: Boston’s station-to-station bashers limit their defensive prowess.

Observation #2: Boston ranks dead last in stolen bases allowed. Why is this important? Who is their first round opponent? The Red Sox could find themselves susceptible to the Angels’ style of play.

CONCLUSION: When it’s all said and done, who do these offensive, defensive and pitching numbers favor? It depends what draws your attention. It’ll just be interesting to see how it all plays out. It’s possible that the two most well-rounded teams play each other in the first round. And that series does not involve the Yankees.