Billy Beane: Mad Scientist or Gifted GM?

Is Billy Beane a genius or a fool?  There is a fine line between the two and after this past off season many people are wondering which it is, including me, a die hard A’s fan. The industry wants to know if Beane is a genius or just lucky to have three premium pitchers all develop at the same time. This season will tell as the Big Three is now dissolved and only Barry Zito remains.

The small market A’s have been competitive every season since 2000. Losing All-Stars Giambi, Tejada, Damon, Isringhausen, and Foulke along with many other fine players, they kept rolling. This season though they are without their one constant through that time, three aces. 

Tim Hudson and Mark Mulder were traded this off-season in what were questionable moves. For Hudson, the A’s received LHP Dan Meyer, setup man Juan Cruz, and OF Charles Thomas.  For Mulder the A’s received RHP Dan Haren, setup man Kiko Calero, and C/DH Daric Barton.

No one really questions that Oakland got talent in the trades, but how much is debated. As well many, including myself, wonder if they got as much as they could or if they should of held out for one last hurrah.

At first I felt that they gave up too soon. They acquired Jason Kendall, a short-term move, and then traded away Tim and Mark, a long-term move. It just didn’t add up.

But now, 35 games into the season I think that the trades were the right ones. The reason that Oakland has struggled this season is not because of its rotation. Zito, Rich Harden, Joe Blanton, Haren, and Kirk Saarloos have combined for a 4.39 ERA. Not great but not horrible either.

The real problem with this team is its pathetic offense and the closer position. The A’s have blown 6 saves this season in 13 tries.  If they had converted all of those save opportunities, they would be 20-15 and in first place instead of last. Now that is a big problem Billy needs to address. Octavio Dotel is NOT the answer.

Offensively, everyone is off to a rough start. It hasn’t helped that Bobby Crosby and Nick Swisher are down with injuries but the guy who the offense is built around, Eric Chavez, has been awful. Newcomer Jason Kendall hasn’t helped much either.

Now that we see why the A’s have struggled we can look that what Billy did. Keeping Mulder and Hudson probably wouldn’t have helped the A’s much in the standings so far as the starting pitching has not been the problem. The only question that can really be asked is whether the A’s should have gotten a bat and a closer instead of pitching in those trades.

Barton was the only significant offensive player acquired and he is still several seasons away and there is no guarantee that he will reach his potential. Of the pitchers that A’s received, none is making a real impact this season. Meyer is in the minors, Haren is 1-5 with a 5.21 ERA.  Both Cruz and Calero have ERAs above 8.00.

Now to be fair, Haren is still young and has pitched better that his ERA suggests. Both Calero and Cruz have stuff that can dominate and still might, and Meyer is still young and could be a force later this season. In the end, trading away Mulder and Hudson has yet to show any return. 

One could argue that the A’s would have been better off with the draft picks that they would have received as free agent compensation.  The flip side of that would ask, could the A’s have drafted more talent then they acquired? Possibly, but among the players acquired, 2 were 1st rounders and 1 was a 2nd rounder. Who knows what picks they would have received or if Mark and Tim would have been healthy enough to garner any compensation at all.

To sum it up, so far Billy’s plan for this season has failed. Mulder and Hudson are pitching great for other teams and the guys he got are not. Could he have done better? Not likely. Could he have done equally as good but different? Possibly. If the A’s don’t win this season Beane will take some heat. If he doesn’t win next season, it will be easy to say that all his success is attributed to the lack of having Hudson, Mulder, and Zito.