2006 Surprise Teams

Part of the magic of baseball is that every year there seams to be a team or two that greatly exceeds expectations.  Even the champion White Sox were predicted by many to have a losing season.  Here are my AL and NL picks on which teams have the right ingredients to surprise.

American League

Winner:  Toronto

I know that this is not necessarily the biggest surprise given their off season moves, but most experts still like Boston and New York.  The additions of Lyle Overbay, A.J. Burnett, Troy Glaus, B.J. Ryan, and Ben Molina will surely have huge impacts but will not be the reason for success.

The biggest reason for this surprise will come from players they have developed or already have.  Regardless of what the new comers do, a resurgence of Vernon Wells and Roy Halladay along with the continued development of Aaron Hill, Russ Adams, Alex Rios, and Dustin McGowan will determine how successful they are. 

If the additions have average seasons and Halladay can have a full season pitching at his best and Wells returns to his 2003 form, Toronto will win their division.

Runner Up:  Detroit

This team could be the most surprising.  They could win their division if the cards fall into place.  Now that is a big IF but not as big as some would think.

Offensively the Tigers could be a juggernaut.  They will need healthy seasons from their starters for that to happen.  A healthy lineup consisting of Dmitri Young, Magglio Ordonez, Ivan Rodriguez, Carlos Guillen, Placido Polanco, and youngster Chris Shelton, while not over powering, could put lots of runs on the board.

Pitching is where they will need the most fortune, but that is not out of the question.  Jeremy Bonderman could turn the corner this season and become the ace he has always been projected to be.  In addition to Bonderman, the Tigers will need Justin Verlander and Joel Zumaya to be successful as well as Nate Robertson and Mike Maroth to take a step forward. 

While he odds of the Tigers posting a winning season and being in contention in August and September are slim, they do have all the pieces that could give them a chance.

National League

Winner: Milwaukee

Like the Blue Jays, the Brewers are starting to get noticed by some, but the Astros and the Cardinals still get all the press.  What most haven’t noticed is the young infield that is ready to break out.

With Prince Fielder at 1B, Rickie Weeks at 2b, and J.J. Hardy at SS the Brewers have the beginnings of a great infield.  Hardy and Weeks saw extensive playing time last season and could be ready for break out years.  Fielder has all the talent to hit in the Majors starting at day 1.  These guys along with new acquisition Cory Koskie and holdovers Carlos Lee and Geoff Jenkins could form a potent lineup.

Pitching could be the biggest surprise if Ben Sheets can remain healthy.  Sheets along with the under-rated Doug Davis give the Brewers one of the best 1-2 punches in the NL.  For the Brewers to surprise though it will also take youngsters like David Bush and Chris Capuano to step up and be productive.

Runner Up:  Florida

With the recent purge of the system, many expect the Marlins to finish last.  However, that might not be the case.  While they did jettison talented players such as Josh Beckett, Carlos Delgado, and Paul Lo Duca, the cup is far from barren in Florida.  Dontrelle Willis is still a front line starter and Miguel Cabrera is still an MVP candidate. 

All that said, it will still take a huge effort from Florida’s heralded prospects.  Guys like Hanley Ramirez, Jeremy Hermida, and Josh Willingham must hold their own in their first full season in the Majors.  As well, young pitchers Jason Vergas and Sergio Mitre must be competent in the rotation. 

If the young players can succeed as they are projected to and the veterans produce to their capabilities, Florida could be there in August smelling a wild card.