Baseball Examiner

Contest Analysis

Projection of games played through May 3

It's very, very early. Therefore, many of the projections are greatly skewed. But some teams have had a fast start, a slow start, been a surprise or a disappointment which has favored certain entries and caused others turmoil.

Fast starts & surprises

Baltimore's fast start most favors Dwaine, with Alex a close second, and most hurts Matt, Phil and Chuck.

Toronto's surprise start favors Matt and most hurts Alex and Dwaine.

The fast start by the White Sox most favors Alex and most hurts Dwaine.

Washington's early surprise most favors Mel and most hurts Matt and Alex.

The Cardinals' hot start most favors Alex and most hurts Dwaine.

The Dodgers' hot start most favors Alex and most hurts Matt.

The surprise start by the Diamondbacks most favors Mel and most hurts Alex.

Slow starts & disappointments

The pathetic display of the Yankees most favors Mel and most hurts Alex.

Cleveland's slow start most favors Matt and least favors Phil, Mel and Eric.

The Cubs' slow start most favors Phil and most hurts just about everybody else.

Houston's slow start most favors Chuck.

Colorado's sluggish start most favors Dwaine and Chuck.

To best read the chart below, observe a team's projected win total in the 5/3 column (each team's projected in total based on games played through May 3) and compare with your prediction. The difference is the number of wins off you are for that team.

For example, based on games played through May 3, Baltimore is on pace to win 106 games. Dwaine's prediction of 87 is the closest, but he's still off by 19. Add up how many wins you are off for all 30 teams, and you have your score.

The AL East has been a disaster for all of us. We combine for an average of 20.4 wins off per team.

The AL West has been kind. As a group we average only 7.0 wins off per team.

There is plenty that will change as the season progresses, but at this point NO ONE is beating Baseball Examiner. The numbers are very high at this early stage, but as the projections start taking form, we'll see our numbers drop.

Here are the standings:

entry # wins off projected totals

Chuck 368

Eric 382

Mel 414

Alex 432

Matt 440

Phil 454

Dwaine 472

The entry that is closest to that team's projection is marked red.

Team	Avg	5/3	6/3	7/3	8/3	9/3	Final	CD	PZ	MO	EG	AR	DK	MC
Baltimore	80	106						76	74	81	80	85	87	74
Toronto	72	93						73	71	76	72	63	65	83
Boston	94	87						95	93	89	98	95	99	89
New York (AL)	96	66						101	91	87	100	107	96	92
Tampa Bay	71	54						66	81	67	64	65	78	77
Total wins off for all teams in division								105	112	78	102	111	113	93
Chicago (AL)	82	118						83	72	81	87	91	75	85
Minnesota	91	97						95	89	85	95	88	94	88
Detroit	78	78						75	72	75	80	83	84	78
Cleveland	80	65						78	83	83	83	78	81	75
Kansas City	63	44						61	70	70	51	55	70	66
Total wins off for all teams in division								70	104	96	60	65	94	74
Los Angeles (AL)	91	96						94	92	87	94	92	98	80
Texas	77	81						75	75	76	85	86	70	72
Oakland	85	78						88	87	84	90	82	76	90
Seattle	80	72						77	84	75	71	74	87	89
Total wins off for all teams in division								23	31	23	19	15	30	54
Florida	88	101						93	89	88	94	78	89	88
Atlanta	91	93						95	87	86	96	97	84	95
Washington	67	84						71	68	74	69	62	65	61
New York (NL)	83	78						84	75	86	81	82	86	86
Philadelphia	83	72						76	85	82	84	85	90	79
Total wins off for all teams in division								33	50	48	40	66	66	53
St. Louis	94	110						98	88	93	97	102	84	97
Chicago (NL)	88	78						91	77	90	90	86	92	91
Milwaukee	71	78						69	81	70	62	66	70	77
Houston	87	71						80	84	91	88	90	88	88
Cincinnati	77	62						75	79	80	80	75	78	75
Pittsburgh	68	58						64	72	70	64	70	69	70
Total wins off for all teams in division								62	70	87	82	72	92	69
Los Angeles (NL)	86	106						88	87	83	82	91	89	81
Arizona	69	96						73	75	78	72	52	65	66
San Francisco	86	87						85	85	86	88	88	80	89
San Diego	83	78						92	90	84	70	92	83	73
Colorado	68	41						59	74	73	63	70	58	76
Total wins off for all teams in division								75	87	80	79	103	77	97
Entry Score								368	454	412	382	432	472	440

Legend of participants:

CD = Chuck of Baseball Examiner

PZ = Phil of Baseball Examiner

MO = Mel Ogrodowski

EG = Eric Gerber

AR = Alex Ruiz

DK = Dwaine Knestrick

MC = Matt Crawford