Contest Analysis

Final Standings

 

Entering the final month of the season, Steve A. held a slight lead over both Chuck & Matt. The September pennant race came down to those 3 entries. Strangely enough, as a group, our picks regressed in the final month as teams like Cleveland, Colorado & Washington exceeded all our expectations even more so while teams like Oakland & Minnesota fizzled off into further disappointment down the stretch. Those 5 teams alone cost each of us 19 wins, though causing no effect on the standings.

 

Steve A. began the month off by a contest low 141 projected wins. Steve gave back 23 wins in September.

 

Chuck began the month 8 wins behind Steve. Chuck gained 2 on Steve due to the Yankees' performance in September; gained 4 more from the Tigers' play; gave 2 back with the Mets; got 2 back with the Cubs; gained 4 more from the Brewers; and gained 2 more from Pittsburgh. This adds up to a 12-win advantage for Chuck, thus passing Steve by 4.

 

That leaves only Matt, who began September tied with Chuck. But Matt lost 8 wins to Chuck from the Yankees; lost 2 more from his beloved Blue Jays; lost 4 more from the Tigers; lost 2 more from Texas; got 4 back from Philadelphia; got 2 more back from the Mets; gave back 2 more from the Cubs; gave back 2 more from the Reds; gave back 2 more from the Pirates; and got back 4 from the Dodgers. That's 0 (tied) - 8 - 2 - 4 - 2 + 4 + 2 - 2 - 2 - 2 + 4 = -12.

 

...Which means that Baseball Examiner has successfully defended its contest for the first time! No entry was able to beat Baseball Examiner. Therefore there is no winner of the Ogre Award this year. A hearty congratulations to all who submitted an entry, particularly to those who made it a tight race in the final stretch! Hopefully Mel will be able to regroup in the off season and be able to submit an entry for 2008 in an attempt to become a 3-time winner.

 

 A couple other notes:

  • Of the 210 predicted team win totals, 8 were nailed dead-on. And 3 of those 8 were by Matt. He pegged Philadelphia, Atlanta, & Milwaukee perfectly. Way to go, Matt!

  • Phil & Steve A. both predicted 3 division winners correct (Boston, Cleveland, & LA Angels). No one else predicted more than 2.

Here are the final standings:
entry end of April end of May end of June end of July end of August Final
Chuck 291 269 207 162 149 160
Steve A. 311 277 213 168 141 164
Matt 339 269 205 190 149 172
Steve W. 325 305 237 202 165 180
Phil 311 255 205 182 173 186
Dwaine 323 287 241 214 217 226
Eric 339 311 249 226 251 240

To best read the chart below, observe a team's projected win total after four months in the Final column and compare with your prediction. The difference is the number of wins off you are for that team.

 

Team

Avg

1mo

2mo

3mo

4mo

5mo

Final

CD

PZ

DK

SA

MC

SW

EG

Boston

91

108

112

100

98

96

96

91

89

90

94

84

93

97

New York (AL)

92

63

70

78

87

90

94

96

84

89

93

90

95

95

Toronto

86

84

76

79

81

82

83

89

84

92

84

82

85

87

Baltimore

72

75

81

72

77

72

69

75

71

70

76

78

72

61

Tampa Bay

68

71

70

68

61

66

66

68

77

69

67

68

65

65

Total wins off for all teams in division

21

31

24

12

28

10

 

15

 

Cleveland

89

103

103

97

92

93

96

93

89

90

88

89

84

89

Detroit

89

91

92

94

93

86

88

92

87

92

86

85

87

96

Minnesota

85

91

84

86

84

82

79

83

83

86

85

87

82

87

Chicago (AL)

84

85

79

72

73

68

72

80

83

80

82

79

92

90

Kansas City

65

50

57

68

72

73

69

66

65

62

64

67

68

61

Total wins off for all teams in division

22

27

32

31

27

37

 

49

 

Los Angeles (AL)

88

93

97

100

96

97

94

92

91

82

88

85

85

90

Seattle

71

81

84

93

89

89

88

74

69

66

78

74

74

64

Oakland

87

78

81

83

76

80

76

88

82

86

85

88

86

96

Texas

78

65

57

67

72

74

75

76

80

78

84

72

78

75

Total wins off for all teams in division

29

33

47

34

38

36

 

48

 

Philadelphia

87

71

80

82

86

87

89

87

84

88

86

89

90

88

New York (NL)

91

101

106

94

90

89

88

92

86

96

85

86

92

98

Atlanta

87

104

92

86

85

83

84

85

85

90

89

84

84

94

Washington

61

56

66

65

70

70

73

58

66

60

60

65

60

60

Florida

75

78

78

74

74

70

71

71

80

80

73

75

74

72

Total wins off for all teams in division

22

24

37

26

14

21

 

35

 

Chicago (NL)

83

68

70

80

86

83

85

84

81

92

82

79

77

89

Milwaukee

86

104

90

95

88

81

83

86

90

89

81

83

84

90

St. Louis

86

68

70

74

79

80

78

83

86

78

84

91

86

93

Houston

82

68

67

68

70

73

73

77

85

87

82

80

82

78

Cincinnati

73

78

62

62

68

74

72

73

72

75

73

74

78

63

Pittsburgh

70

81

70

71

65

71

68

70

67

70

74

73

71

65

 Total wins off for all teams in division

 

16

32

32

27

33

35

 

43

 

Arizona

82

96

94

91

88

89

90

84

84

70

82

86

80

85

San Diego

86

81

95

94

86

89

89

78

90

81

84

95

87

87

Colorado

73

62

75

78

83

83

89

71

72

76

78

78

73

61

Los Angeles (NL)

87

93

95

90

87

85

82

86

89

89

87

83

85

90

San Francisco

77

88

78

70

72

74

71

82

79

77

76

81

81

64

 Total wins off for all teams in division

 

50

39

54

34

32

41

 

50

 

Entry Score

 

 

160

186

226

164

172

180

240

 

Legend of participants:

CD = Chuck of Baseball Examiner

PZ = Phil of Baseball Examiner

DK = Dwaine Knestrick

SA = Steve Aldrich

MC = Matt Crawford

SW = Steve Wojtowicz

EG = Eric Gerber

 

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